Pretty good approach to how many people are watching a popular Youtube video at a given time…
Answer by Ryan Hardy:
Gangnam Style reached reached 500 million views on October 19th, 2012 and reached 1 billion views 63 days later on December 21, 2012. A change of 500 million views over 63 days implies that the video is being viewed an average of 92 times per second in that period. Given that the video is 4:13 long and assuming that 1 view equals 1 person, this means that, on average, about 23,000 people worldwide are currently mesmerized by PSYs dance moves. This is comparable to the population of a small town or the attendance at a very large indoor concert.
Here is the calculation on Wolfram Alpha
This is an average, but how much does this vary during the day? I warn you that the following is extremely preliminary and somewhat lazily done by my usual standards.
I extracted the data from this image to generate an approximate distribution of the world’s population by longitude using edge detection and a handy data extraction tool for Google Chrome ( ). I’m too lazy to go and find geospatial population data.
After duplicating the histogram and normalizing, I then calculated the fraction of the world’s population in a moving 12 and 16 hour range of longitudes to determine how many people are awake and how many people are in daylight.
Here’s what it looks like.The way to read it is to say that at approximate local noon in the time zone on the x-axis, y of the world’s population is either awake or in daylight. I’ll admit that determining the proper amount to shift these plots horizontally is confusing, so this plot might change in future edits. I assume people wake up at 8 am worldwide and go to bed at midnight, though this varies considerably around the world.
Regardless of the proper shifts, approximate univariate statistics can be derived from these data. The average The standard deviations of both quantities is 0.04. Awake fraction and daylight fraction can change by 0.17 and 0.23, respectively in the course of the day. The means of these are 0.51 and 0.67. The 2.5th and 97.5th percentile awake fractions are 0.6 and 0.75.
I therefore predict hourly Gangnam Style views have a standard deviation of 6%, or +/-1,400 views and that 95% of the time, the number of people watching is between 20,600 and 25,800 people.
If a design, particularly a team design, is to have conceptual integrity, one should name the scarce resource explicitly, track it publicly, control it firmly — Fred Brooks
“In Mexico City, planners turn vacant space under freeways into places to work, dine, play
Nick Miroff. May 29, 2013
Mexico City — You can’t get something out of nothing. This is common sense, not to mention a principle of physics and mathematics.
Yet the amazing science of Mexico City’s real estate development obeys no such laws.
Urban planners here, in one of the world’s most populous and crowded cities, have found a way to add thousands of square feet of new commercial and recreational space. And it isn’t costing local government a cent.
Their gambit is called Under Bridges (“Bajo Puentes”), and it’s a simple idea: Convert the vacant, trash-strewn lots beneath Mexico City’s overpasses and freeways into shopping plazas, public playgrounds and outdoor cafes.”
Photo: Dominic Bracco II / Prime - A man rests on one of the new park benches in one of Mexico City overpass developments on May 27.
via massurban & Washington Post
Thought this is a rather interesting use of what is considered to be dead urban space. Probably reduces crime intensity and helps with maintaining cleanliness.
Visual on what makes Great Britain, United Kingdom and British Isles
The difference between UK, Britain and the British Isles
Source: Ordnance Survey Blog
Critical system downtime, upgrades and planning for continuous availability
As this article notes, maintaining system uptime is not as easy as merely upgrading the underlying platform. Actually, IBM’s mainframes are still leading edge when it comes to ensuring transaction integrity coupled with high reliability (which is often confused with availability).
Though most management consultants would recommend replacing a mainframe environment with an x86 platform coupled with the likes of VMware, there is a fair amount of engineering that IBM provides which is taken for granted and not replicated when swapping just the infrastructure.
As the article notes, it is interesting to hear that bank executives believe that a hardware upgrade will solve uptime and availability issues. Reality is a bit more complex - in the case of RBS, it appears that there is a knowledge gap in understanding the current landscape which then led to broken operational processes, culminating in a four day [emphasis added] outage of all core bank systems.
A hardware upgrade will add more computational capacity which is redundant in addressing the core issues - and may in fact exacerbate system reliability. To migrate onto the new hardware, one would need to have a solid understanding of current processes which has clearly been lacking. Thus the migration would introduce more failure points and potentially defects, resulting in an elevated risk of system outages in the future.
Nonetheless, the upgrade is costly (~$700M) which adds to the perception of serious investment being made in addressing the issue. The only ones benefiting from this are the consultants and potentially the hardware and software sales teams.
If you fail, don’t associated yourself with that failure. It’s an event, it’s not who you are. — Great advice by Jason Sosa, founder of IMRSV, one of Time.com’s 10 startups to watch in 2013, shares his thoughts on perseverance in the face of challenges. (via fastcompany)
In some recent articles, there has been discussion of data standards for emerging Insurance technologies such as telematics. The advice provided appears to be off mark in terms of optimizing business value from ‘Big Data’ concepts.
A key aspect of ‘Big Data’ is being able to store raw data as it is being generated and to leverage it for a need once it has been identified. The technologists would call it ‘late binding’ where the data is extracted from source systems in its raw form and the structure is only imposed when a query is sent. This allows one to store raw data and apply evolving structure as they learn more about the information needed.
To aid an iterative exploratory use of data, the following guiding principles should be considered:
1. Store raw information in non-relational but structured format
2. Premature optimization can impede innovation and discovery
3. Controls to ensure privacy and protection need to be embedded at time of data sourcing
4. Throw out the book on sampling
If anything, the monitoring by the NSA enhanced the public understanding of what metadata is and what is really a practical application of graph theory first (and then perhaps data mining in general).
The monitoring is nothing new - I would imagine it has been happening since 2001 or so… just in a more repeatable / operational way.
A scoop from The Guardian confirmed what many people suspected—the National Security Agency (NSA) is spying on the phone activity of millions of Americans. Using a secret court order, which was not disclosed to the public, the NSA obtained bulk phone records for Verizon’s customers on a daily basis. Each day, the NSA would receive a massive flood of data from Verizon.
How do they do it, and what can they do with the information?
Berkshire gets serious about Commercial Insurance -
Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway Inc. has poached four senior executives from American International Group Inc., grabbing people with experience insuring large and unusual risks.
Just as rates begin to harden, Berkshire indicates its intent to enter Commercial Insurance market. The shadow of additional capacity may temper some of the hardening while the market share of the current leaders diminishing somewhat.
In the E&S space, it is likely that Lloyd’s and AIG (through its Lexington subsidiary) will loose marketshare. In addition, market entry in the E&S space is a lot easier than the admitted market - from an operations and technology perspective. It will not be surprising to see products with a modicum of distribution to be in place as early as 2014.
Admitted market is going to be more challenging given the average premium size is much smaller and the regulatory oversight slowing launch of products. Nonetheless, it is clear that Insurance continues to be a focus of Berkshire and one where it seeks to replicate its reinsurance underwriting success.
Love the 2 by 2 for classifying those that provide feedback
In my ongoing quest for the perfect framework for understanding haters, I created The Disapproval Matrix**. (With a deep bow to its inspiration.) This is one way to separate haterade from productive feedback. Here’s how the quadrants break down:
Critics: These are smart people who know something about your field. They are taking a hard look at your work and are not loving it. You’ll probably want to listen to what they have to say, and make some adjustments to your work based on their thoughtful comments.
Lovers: These people are invested in you and are also giving you negative but rational feedback because they want you to improve. Listen to them, too.
Frenemies: Ooooh, this quadrant is tricky. These people really know how to hurt you, because they know you personally or know your work pretty well. But at the end of the day, their criticism is not actually about your work—it’s about you personally. And they aren’t actually interested in a productive conversation that will result in you becoming better at what you do. They just wanna undermine you. Dishonorable mention goes to The Hater Within, aka the irrational voice inside you that says you suck, which usually falls into this quadrant. Tell all of these fools to sit down and shut up.
Haters: This is your garden-variety, often anonymous troll who wants to tear down everything about you for no rational reason. Folks in this quadrant are easy to write off because they’re counterproductive and you don’t even know them. Ignore! Engaging won’t make you any better at what you do. And then rest easy, because having haters is proof your work is finding a wide audience and is sparking conversation. Own it.
The general rule of thumb? When you receive negative feedback that falls into one of the top two quadrants—from experts or people who care about you who are engaging with and rationally critiquing your work—you should probably take their comments to heart. When you receive negative feedback that falls into the bottom two quadrants, you should just let it roll off your back and just keep doin’ you. If you need to amp yourself up about it, may I suggest this #BYEHATER playlist on Spotify? You’re welcome.
** I presented The Disapproval Matrix to the fine folks at MoxieCon in Chicago yesterday, and they seemed to find it useful, so I figured I’d share with the class. It was originally inspired by a question my friend Channing Kennedy submitted to my #Realtalk column at the Columbia Journalism Review.